Scenario Plans (& Delphi Research)

H+AI: The Genius of Crowds and AI

On March 26, 2024

In Delphi Method, Generative AI, H+AI, RefractiveThinker, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research

This site has now taken a dive into AI, Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) in this case. AI Assistants are everywhere now, and proliferating. In search(ish) there is Google’s Gemini (formerly Bard); in Microsoft there’s Copilot which utilizes OpenAI’s ChatGPT. And, of course there ChatGPT itself, with the open source version available to anyone who has the time and money to obtain data, pre-train, and implement their own GAI system — typically for a more specific application like internal customer service.

There is a new heading on DelphiPlan.com (ScenarioPlan.com) that addresses Delphi + AI, or Scenario + AI… https://delphiplan.com/delphi-ai-primer/

Scenario Planning within Nonprofits

By DelphiMan

On January 21, 2023

In Contingency Plan, Nonprofits, scenario planning, Strategic Planning

A seminar for nonprofits included discussion of scenario planning as it pertained to the Great CIVID Pandemic. It wasn’t so much scenario planning as we use it here on ScenarioPlans.com, as best, worst, and most-likely case (but more on that later). Imagine the nonprofit, out on thin ice, as the world’s economy went into lockdown. What if all funding froze up, even the promises of commitment? What if we are over-whelmed (under-whelmed) with customer needs? What if we have to cease operations (for an indefinite time)?

An excellent article with tools is at Bridgespan: Nonprofit Scenario Planning During a Crisis. (Image is from Bridgespan.)

The EV Hurricane Disaster: a 1-sided scenario, part 2

By DelphiMan

On December 29, 2021

In Contingency Plan, Renewable Energy, scenario planning

Read The EV Hurricane Disaster: a 1-sided scenario, Part 1 on ScenarioPlans.com (also DelphiPlan.com). The EV disaster article analyzes a viral email that talks about how horrible it will be when a hurricane is storming into a population center and the electric vehicles are all stuck on the road with no possibility for charging.

PART 2 of this discussion is from SustainZine: The EV Hurricane Disaster: a 1-sided scenario, part 2. (Repeated here for convenience.)

The EV Hurricane Disaster: a 1-sided scenario, Part 1

By DelphiMan

On December 29, 2021

In Scenario Planning & Delphi Research

An unsigned, undated, email came circulating the web presenting a horror story about EVs: Everyone has electric cars, and they are all trying to flee the peninsula (let’s say South Florida) as a hurricane approaches. Cars are stuck in traffic with no place to go, and no place the recharge. Can’t run radios and air conditioning because that uses precious batteries. Kids and elderly suffering in sweltering heat.

The obvious conclusion: we all need to stick with huge gas-guzzling SUVs and avoid moving into the future.

Crypto Currency as Legal Tender in El Salvador, and more…

By DelphiMan

On September 3, 2021

In scenario planning

It has been interesting to find people within governments trash talking crypto currency. “No way it will become mainstream.” “Doesn’t have backing of a sovereign government, so …”

Bitcoin in El Salvador store. Official starting Sept 7 2021. (Reuters)

WEF Global Risks Report for Scenario Plans

By DelphiMan

On January 30, 2021

In Contingency Plan, Horrizon Planning, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research, Strategic Planning

The Global Risks Report 2021, 16th Ed., Insight Report, was just released by the World Economic Forum (WEF). This is one of the best places in the world to gather ideas for scenario planning, especially Chapter 1 on Fractured Futures. Essentially, this report is scenario planning, but for the whole of the world, and then on a region-by-region basis. So, a government, a business, or a non-profit organization can simply review these risks, adapt the concepts to your locale and situation, and wa-la, you have scenarios to plug into your scenario planning workshop. Of course, multiple risks might have similar results for your organization; for example, disaster recovery planning might be similar for man-made disasters as well as natural disasters.

Survival Planning: using scenarios in times of extreme uncertainty

By DelphiMan

On December 22, 2020

In Contingency Plan, Horrizon Planning, scenario planning, Strategic Planning

A Recession is destructive innovation. It has accelerated, for example, the Amazon effect of online sales and purchases with the closure of some 29 retailers. The recession of the 2020 Pandemic is different in some respects, straining local restaurants and bars, even the best of local.

Beyond Moore’s law, Beyond Silicone Chips

By DrJ

On May 1, 2020

In Delphi Method, Horrizon Planning, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research

Beyond Moore’s law (by Dr Ed Jordan)

After almost 60 years, Moore’s law, related to the doubling of computing power every year-and-a-half-ish, still holds. At the current exponential speed, there is a brick wall looming in the foreground: the physical limitations of silicon chips. The most straightforward example of how that might impact a company is to look at Intel Corp. But first more on Moore’s law and the more general idea of learning curves.

COVID in the US

By DelphiMan

On April 21, 2020

In Military/DoD Planning, scenario planning, Strategic Planning

We talked about how scenario planning would and should have help see this pandemic, and have early warning signs for continuing plans.

PREDICT a Pandemic: First Kill those Pesty Scientists

By DelphiMan

On April 6, 2020

In Horrizon Planning, Military/DoD Planning, scenario planning, Scenario Planning & Delphi Research, Strategic Planning

Oh My God!

Trumps administration completely stopped the PREDICT program that did USAID training and response world-wide for pandemics. Since the Bird Flu of 2005 (H5N1), the US presidents (Bush II and Obama) have moved toward building a program to identify potential pandemics and to help countries (including the USA) deal with such an eventuality. Of course, the PREDICT program got to deal with several pandemic-type events including SARS, MERS, Ebola and even Zika (mosquito). The idea, which apparently worked very well, is to fight a pandemic where it originates in other countries, so that you don’t have to fight it here in the USA. Of course, the train-the-trainer program would be developed and applied here in the USA.